Why has Elon Musk, whose Twitter/X is reportedly bleeding ad revenue, gone all in on supporting misinformation maven Donald Trump? Why is he bouncing around stages wearing multiple shades of MAGA hat? Why test election law now, so close to November 5, with a dubious $1 million lottery for registered voters in swing states who’ve signed Musk’s equally dubious petition?

These questions are being raised on the campaign trail, after VP candidate Tim Walz joked in a speech Tuesday that Musk was effectively Trump’s VP pick. In a made-for-memes moment, Walz wondered why Musk had started “dancing like a dipshit” at the former president’s rallies.

The answer may not be that Musk has just become a rabid red-pilled true believer. The owner’s X feed has long been full of far-right fibs that aren’t getting Community Notes, and yet even now he seems reluctant to go down the deepest MAGA rabbit holes — for example, declining to receive a book of conspiracy theories on the 2020 election at his first solo Pennsylvania event this week.

Nor is this about Musk’s tax bill. You might think that would be the main reason for the world’s richest man to vault a candidate like Trump, who promises to cut his effective tax rate, to the head of the federal government. But based on ProPublica’s IRS investigations, Musk likely pays little to no federal income tax already. Trump would try to lower the tax rate on sales of stock, something Musk does a lot — but it’s Congress that ultimately decides whether to cut taxes, not the president.

No, it looks increasingly like Musk’s main concern is evading consequences from the feds, according to an exhaustive New York Times report.

Four of Musk’s companies face a total of “at least 20” federal probes. The Departments of Justice, Labor and Transportation are looking into legal violations and discrimination lawsuits at Tesla, SpaceX and Neuralink. And X? The SEC and the FTC are all over it for alleged violations around Musk’s $44 billion purchase. Just this month, Musk was a no-show at a court-ordered SEC interview.

Musk has a history of dragging the SEC and other regulators through long court battles, then paying fines that pale in comparison to his wealth. But now, with so many fronts to fight on, 2025 may be the year that the billionaire’s disdain finally catches up with him given the volume of investigations detailed in the New York Times report.

On top of his federal battles, Musk is facing a dozen private lawsuits from Tesla owners’ families, three of which are slated to go to trial in 2025. The lawsuits allege that Musk made Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities seem more advanced than they were, resulting in multiple deaths and injuries. The National Highway Safety Traffic Administration and the DOJ are looking into the same thing.

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At the same time, Musk currently holds an incredible amount of sway within the federal government – as one of its largest contractors. The Times dug up nearly $16 billion in contracts for his companies over the last decade, the vast majority with the Pentagon and NASA. And Musk’s reliance on government money is growing: last year alone, his companies won $3 billion from a total of 17 federal agencies.

That’s 3 billion reasons every year to stymie any investigations that could bring Musk’s house of contracts crashing down.

And here’s what Trump has offered Musk: his own “government efficiency commission” that would recommend cuts to federal agencies. Crucially, it would also suggest changes to regulations. Trump and his Project 2025 supporters have vowed a sweeping purge of federal government employees. In a second Trump administration, Musk could be one of the most powerful voices at the table deciding the direction of that purge.

There it is: Not a conspiracy theory, but an out-in-the-open offer to let Musk torment his investigators. Musk may dress it up as “D.O.G.E.,” referencing one of his favorite memes, but here’s how the Times report puts it: The department “would essentially give the world’s richest man and a major government contractor the power to regulate the regulators who hold sway over his companies, amounting to a potentially enormous conflict of interest.”

Given the eye-popping amount of money involved, “potentially enormous conflict of interest” could be an understatement. In any case, growing Musk’s $3 billion-a-year government business — and safeguarding his businesses from investigations that may tank the stock — is worth bouncing around swing states waving giant checks in any number of MAGA hats.