Comments from Fed’s Powell can be organized by topic

Organizing Chair Jerome Powell’s comments by topic helps in understanding the Federal Reserve’s comprehensive approach towards economic indicators, monetary policy, and financial stability. Here’s an organized summary:Labor Market Observations

• Strength and Stability:
  • “STRONG JOB GROWTH IS NOT A REASON FOR US TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT INFLATION.”
  • “STRONG HIRING ALL BY ITSELF WOULD NOT BE A REASON TO HOLD OFF ON RATE CUTS.”
  • “STRONG HIRING BY ITSELF WOULD NOT BE A REASON TO HOLD OFF ON RATE CUTS.”
  • “ON LABOR MARKET, IF WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, YOU COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE A BIGGER ECONOMY WHERE INFLATION PRESSURES ARE NOT INCREASING.”
  • “LABOR MARKET IS IN GOOD SHAPE.”
  • “THINGS ARE RETURNING MORE TO THE PRE-PANDEMIC STATE.”
  • “WAGE GROWTH MODERATING TO MORE SUSTAINABLE LEVELS.”
  • “WE ARE SEEING STRONG LABOR MARKET, EXTREME IMBALANCES MOSTLY RESOLVED.”
  • “DON’T SEE CRACKS IN JOB MARKET.”
  • “DON’T SEE CRACKS IN THE LABOR MARKET.”
• Monitoring and Adjustments:
  • “WE ARE CLOSELY WATCHING LAYOFFS.”
  • “INITIAL CLAIMS ARE VERY VERY LOW.”

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation Concerns:
  • “IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT WE DO GET INFLATION SUSTAINABLY DOWN.”
  • “WE NEED TO TAKE TIME TO ASSESS IF RECENT INFLATION REPRESENTS MORE THAN BUMPS IN THE ROAD.”
  • “RECENT INFLATION DATA HASN’T ALTERED STORY OF INFLATION COMING DOWN TO 2% ON A SOMETIMES BUMPY PATH.”
  • “INFLATION DATA CAME IN A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED.”
• Policy Outlook:
  • “WE MADE NO DECISIONS ABOUT FUTURE MEETINGS TODAY; WILL DEPEND ON DATA.”
  • “WE ARE STRONGLY COMMITTED TO BRINGING INFLATION DOWN TO 2% OVER TIME.”
  • “NEVERTHELESS, WE CONTINUE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS ON BRINGING INFLATION DOWN.”
  • “WE WILL MAKE DECISIONS MEETING BY MEETING.”
  • “WE WILL CAREFULLY ASSESS INCOMING DATA TO DECIDE POLICY.”
  • “WE NEED GREATER CONFIDENCE INFLATION MOVING SUSTAINABLY DOWN BEFORE WE CUT RATES.”
  • “LIKELY TO CUT RATES AT SOME POINT THIS YEAR.”
  • “OUR POLICY RATE IS LIKELY AT ITS PEAK.”
  • “WE ARE NOT GOING TO OVERREACT TO THESE TWO MONTHS OF DATA; NOR IGNORE THEM.”

Economic Stability and Financial Policy

• Financial Stability Measures:
  • “WILL LIMIT RISK TO MONEY MARKET VOLATILITY.”
  • “SLOWING PACE OF RUNOFF WILL ENSURE SMOOTH TRANSITION, MITIGATING CHANCE OF MONEY MARKET STRESS.”
  • “GENERAL SENSE IS TO SLOW PACE OF RUN OFF FAIRLY SOON.”
  • “OUR GENERAL SENSE IS WE WILL START RUN OFF FAIRLY SOON.”
  • “ON BALANCE SHEET, WE DISCUSSED ISSUES RELATED TO SLOWING PACE OF DECLINE IN HOLDINGS.”
  • “DISCUSSED BALANCE SHEET AT THIS MEETING.”
• Balance Sheet Management:
  • “OUR LONG-RUN GOAL IS TO RETURN TO BALANCE SHEET THAT IS MOSTLY TREASURIES.”
  • “WE ARE GOING TO PAY A LOT OF ATTENTION TO PAST MISTAKES ON BALANCE SHEET RUNOFF.”
  • “IN GOING SLOWER ON BALANCE SHEET, WE THINK WE CAN GET FURTHER.”
  • “IT WILL MEAN WE RUN MUCH MUCH LESS RISK ON LIQUIDITY ISSUES.”

Rate Decisions and Economic Outlook

• Interest Rates and Economic Health:
  • “IT IS STILL LIKELY IN MOST PEOPLE’S VIEW THAT WE WILL HAVE RATE CUTS THIS YEAR. BUT DEPEND ON DATA.”
  • “BUT THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY AROUND THAT.”
  • “MY INSTINCT IS RATES WON’T GO BACK DOWN TO VERY LOW LEVELS WE SAW BEFORE.”
  • “INSTINCT IS THAT RATES WILL NOT GO BACK DOWN TO VERY LOW LEVELS.”
  • “DON’T THINK WE KNOW THAT RATES WILL BE HIGHER IN THE LONGER

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.