Heads up for Swiss CPI coming up at 06:30 GMT

We have Swiss CPI for march due at 06:30 GMT

Markets are looking for a MM print of 0.3% (prior 0.6%) and for a YY print of 1.3% (prior 1.2%).

Despite the surprise cut by the SNB at their previous meeting, I think there is two-way risks for the CHF on this print.

The SNB were very clear on not providing any forward guidance on rates at the meeting. They also didn’t acknowledge a preference for a weaker CHF by saying they are open to both FX reserve buying and selling.

Looking at CHF CFTC data (net positioning as a percentage of open interest) we can see that markets have a decent short position running already.

Which means an upside surprise could be enough to see some of that unwind.

Numbers I’m watching for today for a possible trigger is a miss of 0.9% or lower to give enough conviction to see more CHF downside.

Alternatively, a print of 1.5% or higher could be enough to trigger some short position unwinding.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.