Fed’s Goolsbee: Biggest danger to inflation is high inflation in housing services

• I had been expecting housing services inflation to come down more quickly than it has
• If housing inflation does not come down, would be very difficult to return inflation to 2%
• Housing inflation is my most-valuable indicator for the immediate future
• If we stay restrictive for too long, we will likely see employment begin to deteriorate
• Risks to inflation and employment mandates have moved into better balance
• I will be watching inflation developments closely
• My overall assessment is that these two months of inflation data should not knock us off the path back to target
• It’s worth paying especially close attention to the leading indicators from the labor market for signs of deterioration
• Housing inflation is running at 5.5-6.0%, even now
• Housing inflation is puzzling because if you look at market rents, they down but the official numbers haven’t come down.
• I still think housing inflation will come down
• Says he’s watching inflation, not employment or GDP
• 2023 consumer proved strong and more resilient than people thought
• Full text

Goolsbee has been more dovish in the past but he’s inching towards a more hawkish view but it will depend on those housing numbers.

Key line:

This leaves the biggest danger to the inflation picture in my view as
the continued high inflation in housing services. Although it has come
down some from quite elevated levels, it continues to run much higher
than it was before the pandemic. Based on market data on rents for new
leases, I have been expecting it to come down more quickly than it has.
If it does not come down, we will have a very difficult time getting
overall inflation back to the 2% target. Housing inflation remains my
most valuable indicator for the immediate future.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.