Everything was going so well in stocks, until it wasn’t

Everything was going well with the stocks with the major indices all higher earlier in the day:

• Dow intraday high reached up +294 points
• S&P intraday high reached up +45.11 points
• Nasdaq intraday high reached up +190.59 points

The small-cap Russell 2000 had a intraday high at up 25.26 points.

At the close, the final numbers are showing a different story as geopolitical news (Iran set to retaliate in Isreal), and perhaps some Fedspeak including Kashkari’s proclamation that the Fed may not cut rates at all this week. Bostic said earlier this week, it may be one. Barkin, Mester, etc, said it is ok to take some time (not in a hurry).

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average fell -530.80 points or -1.36% at 38596.97. That equaled it largest decline for 2024 (same as February 13)
• S&P index fell -64.28 points or -1.23% at 5147.20. That is the largest decline since February 13.
• NASDAQ index fell -228.38 points or -1.40% at 16049. That is the largest decline since March 5.

The small-cap Russell 2000, of -22.37 points or -1.08% at 2053.82

For the trading week with one day left:

• Dow industrial average is down -3.04%
• S&P index is down -2.04%
• NASDAQ index is about -2.02%
• Russell 2000 is down -3.32%

In the US debt market, fears of less Fed did not help the gains in debt instruments as a result of the flight-to-safety buying:

• two year yield 4.647%, -3.2 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.293% -4.4 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.307%, -4.8 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.468%, voice 4.0 basis points

Meanwhile, although Fedspeak was hawkish there is still a 69% chance for a cut in June, an82% cut in July, and a 95% cut in September.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.