USDCHF Technical Analysis

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
  change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
  the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
  unemployment rate lower.
• The US CPI beat expectations for the third
  consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.
• The US NFP beat expectations across the board
  although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to
  the lowest level in 4 years.
• The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a
  big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in
  September.

CHF

• The SNB cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the policy rate
  to 1.50% vs. 1.75% prior.
• The latest Switzerland CPI missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The Unemployment Rate remains steady at cycle lows.
• The Manufacturing PMI improved further while the Services
  PMI saw a big drop. Both the measures are in contraction.
• The market expects the SNB to cut
  rates again in June.

USDCHF Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF has been
consolidating around the key resistance at
0.9112. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better
risk to reward setup around the trendline where
they will also find the red 21 moving average and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for
confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
invalidate the bullish setup and increase the bearish bets into new lows.

USDCHF Technical Analysis –
4-hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD, which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback would stand right around
the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, but the price will first
need to break below the 0.91 handle to confirm it.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1-hour Timeframe

On the 1-hour chart, we can see that the
price has been ranging between the 0.91 support and the 0.9145 resistance. The
buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into
new highs, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to
target a drop into the 0.90 handle.

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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.