New Zealand’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends cash rate on hold this week

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep its cash rate unchanged at the meeting on Wednesday, 22 May 2024.

• Statement is due at 2pm New Zealand time (0300 GMT, 2200 US Eastern time)

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Monetary Policy Shadow Board has published what it thinks should happen. Comments (in brief) on reasoning:

• recommends the RBNZ keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50%
• While there is consensus across the Shadow Board members that annual CPI inflation is continuing to ease, the persistence of high domestic inflation remains a concern. Because of this, the Shadow Board believes the OCR should remain unchanged in May. One member also pointed out that the RBNZ should keep the OCR hold in May, given the uncertainty over the Government’s Budget.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting preview – (still) hawkish hold expected

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected on hold at its May 2024 meeting – preview
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting preview – on hold expected

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The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a ‘shadow board’ of analysts. The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will happen, but what they think should happen.

As for this week’s meeting the view of the Shadows is the same as the market consensus, an on hold @ 5.5% decision.

• Shadow Board members agreed that inflation was easing, but there was uncertainty over whether the pace of this easing would be enough to bring annual CPI inflation back within the inflation target band over the coming year.
• The general view was that it would be prudent for the central bank to wait to assess how the economy will track over the coming months, given uncertainty over the global growth outlook and the new Government’s priorities.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.