Lower Canadian inflation figures raise the chances for a June rate cut

The Canadian CPI report saw the underlying inflation measures, which is what the BoC cares most about, falling into the central bank’s 1-3% target band:

• Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y 2.9% vs. 2.9% expected and 3.2% prior.
• Median CPI Y/Y 2.6% vs. 2.7% expected and 2.9% prior.
• Common CPI Y/Y 2.6% vs. 2.8% expected and 2.9% prior.

The market pricing saw the chances for a June rate cut rising to 48% from 40% before the data, so basically a coinflip. I’d say that the chances for a rate cut are higher than those implied by the market.

We can see that USDCAD spiked to the upper limit of the average daily range after breaking above the resistance around the 1.3640 level. We might see a retracement now back into the resistance-turned-support where the buyers could look to buy the dip into the 1.37 handle.

I don’t like the pair at the moment because we have also general USD weakness which could make the short on CAD murkier. Pairs like AUDCAD or EURCAD might have cleaner moves into the BoC decision on June 5th.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.