JP Morgan on UK CPI (risk tilted to upside) say BoE may not be able to ease at all in 2024

JP Morgan cites still high UK inflation:

• “Most of the underlying measures the BoE has drawn attention to look not just strong, but are strengthening (on a 3m/3m basis),”
• “The biggest risk at present comes from stronger growth, which is running well above BoE expectations. That could increase business pricing power and tilt inflation risks to the upside”

and conclude:

• “We stick with our August call but believe the risks have clearly tilted back towards a later cut, and the talking point now will be whether the BoE can ease at all this year”

Bolding is mine.

–

I posted earlier on GS wavering also:

• Goldman Sachs expect a Bank of England 25bp rate cut in August (previously tipping June)

Deutsche Bank and HSBC have also switched from a June cut call to August.

The UK CPI data is here ICYMI:

• UK April CPI +2.3% vs +2.1% y/y expected
• Sterling gains as UK inflation slows by less than anticipated
• Traders move to pare back BOE rate cuts odds after UK CPI report

UK CPI

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.