What are the main events for today?

Today there’s no notable event in the European session and all the action will take place in the American session as we get to see the Canadian CPI data and the US Consumer Confidence report.

12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada May CPI

The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6%
vs. 2.7% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.5% prior. The
Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 2.9% prior, while the Median CPI
Y/Y is seen at 2.6% vs. 2.6% prior.

The last
report showed the underlying inflation
measures falling back inside the BoC’s 1-3% target band which gave the central
bank the green light to deliver the first
rate cut. The market sees a 65% chance of
another rate cut in July (55.6 bps by the end of the year) but that will depend on the CPI data today.

14:00 GMT/10:00 ET – US June Consumer Confidence

The US Consumer Confidence is expected at
100 vs. 102 prior. The last
report showed confidence improving after
three consecutive months of decline. The Chief Economists at The Conference
Board highlighted that “the strong labour market continued to bolster
consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation”.

Moreover, “looking ahead, fewer consumers
expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and
income”. The overall confidence gauge remained within the relatively narrow
range it has been hovering in for more than two years. The Present
Situation Index will be something to watch given the recent misses in the US
Jobless Claims as that’s generally a leading indicator
for the unemployment rate.

Central bank speakers:

• 11:00 GMT/07:00 ET – Fed’s Bowman (hawk – voter)
• 16:00 GMT/12:00 ET – Fed’s Cook (neutral – voter)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.