Credit Agricole: EUR oversold and CHF overbought according to positioning model

Credit Agricole’s latest G10 FX PIX 2.0 model indicates significant shifts in currency positioning. The EUR is now deemed oversold, while the CHF has turned overbought. These findings are based on recent IMM flow data and overall market sentiment.

Key Points:

1. G10 FX PIX 2.0 Model Insights:

   • The model shows GBP, CHF, and NZD as overbought.
   • The EUR is identified as oversold.

2. EUR Positioning:

   • Recent selling pressure on the EUR has primarily been driven by IMM flows.
   • FX flow data indicates inflows from banks, corporates, and hedge funds.
   • Real money investors have been net sellers of the EUR.
   • Overall, the EUR has moved into oversold territory.

3. CHF Positioning:

   • The CHF experienced buying interest, predominantly from IMM flows.
   • Real money investors have been net buyers of the CHF.
   • Banks, corporates, and hedge funds have been net sellers.
   • As a result, the CHF is now considered overbought.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole’s positioning model highlights an oversold EUR and an overbought CHF. This shift in market positioning suggests potential opportunities for investors. The oversold status of the EUR could present buying opportunities, while the overbought status of the CHF may warrant caution or profit-taking. Monitoring these positioning dynamics could be crucial for making informed trading decisions in the FX market

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.