Fed’ Goolsbee: I see some warning signs the real economy is weakening

• I still think the ‘golden path’ is possible
• Higher inflation this year has mostly looked like a blip, or a bump in the road
• If you take a step back, the arc of inflation is clearly down
• Goods are basically back to pre-pandemic inflation, services are a bit higher ‘but within shooting distance’, the whole puzzle is housing, which is partly just mechanical
• If we used European measures on housing inflation, we would already be at 2%
• The evidence is that there was a lot more immigration than we thought a year ago. That makes me cautious on over-interpreting the non-farm payrolls number

This is a change in tone from Goolsbee, as he expresses more worries about inflation

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.