Canada June employment change by -1.4K versus 22.5K estimate

• Prior month 26.7K
• Employment change -1.4K vs 22.5K estimate
• Unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.3% estimate.
• Prior month employment rate 6.2%
• Full-time employment -3.4K vs -35.6K last month
• Part-time employment 1.9K vs 62.4K last month
• Participation rate 65.3% vs 65.4% last month
• Average hourly wages YoY 5.60% vs 5.20% last month

Weaker than expected job gain but the unemployment rate moves higher.

Other highlights from the report:

• The employment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 61.1%.
• The unemployment rate increased 0.2 percentage points to 6.4% in June and has risen 1.3 percentage points since April 2023.
• Employment fell among young men aged 15 to 24 (-13,000; -0.9%) but increased for core-aged women (aged 25 to 54) (+19,000; +0.3%).
• Declines were seen in transportation and warehousing (-12,000; -1.1%) and public administration (-8,800; -0.7%).
• Increases were noted in accommodation and food services (+17,000; +1.5%) and agriculture (+12,000; +5.5%).
• Employment declined in Quebec (-18,000; -0.4%) but increased in New Brunswick (+3,000; +0.8%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (+2,600; +1.1%).
• Total hours worked were down 0.4% in June, but up 1.1% year-over-year.
• Average hourly wages among employees increased 5.4% in June year-over-year, following 5.1% growth in May (not seasonally adjusted).
• The employment rate for returning students aged 15 to 24 was 46.8% in June, down from 51.7% a year earlier (not seasonally adjusted).

The USDCAD is moving higher initially. The US data was mixed with revisions more than offsetting the higher jobs report. The US unemployment rate rose as well.

Looking at the USDCAD it has the 100 day MA above at 1.36342 which will be the key barometer for traders today. The price fell below that MA on Tuesday but bounced higher. Yesterday the price traded above and below in the Asian session, but then fell in Europe and the NA session. Today, the price traded into a swing area between 1.3600 and 1.3615 but held the 1.3600 level and above the lower 200 day MA at 1.3590 as well. So overall, the pair trades with the 100 day MA as resistance and the 200 day MA as support (blue and green lines on the chart below).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.