New Zealand – RBNZ shadow board recommends the Reserve Bank keeps OCR at 5.5% on Wednesday

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a ‘shadow board’ of analysts. The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will happen, but what they think should happen.

From their report, in brief:

• Most Shadow Board members recommended that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50 percent in the upcoming Monetary Policy Review on 10 July 2024. The weaker growth and a slack labour market, along with the continued easing in annual CPI inflation, suggest that the OCR increases to date are reducing inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy. However, with domestic inflation pressures remaining elevated, Shadow Board members were of the view that the RBNZ should remain cautious about moving the OCR for now. One member considered that there is justification for a cut in the OCR given the deteriorating economic outlook.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce their decision at 2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday the 10th July

• which is is 0200 GMT on the 10th
• and 2200 US Eastern time on the 9th

Earlier:

RBNZ Monetary Policy Review due Wednesday – “not expecting a whole lot”

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting this week – preview (on hold widely expected)
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting – rates to be left on hold

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.