Never underestimate the US consumer (or the US dollar)

The US consumer flex his muscles again in June with the retail sales control group up 0.9% compared to 0.2% expected — the highest in more than a year. That was part of a broadly-strong US retail report that has underpinned a US dollar rally and raised questions about the path of Fed funds.

Pricing for rate cuts fell to 64 basis points this year from 68 bps before the data. The US dollar rose 30-50 pips across the board and Treasury yields rose, particularly at the front end with 2s now up 5 bps from pre-data levels to 4.47%.

The question for the Fed is how hard they want to lean into the ‘soft landing’ scenario. A strong retail sales number isn’t necessarily bad from their perspective so long as it comes with continued improvements in inflation. That said, if consumers continue to spend aggressively, it’s inevitable that retailers will raise prices.

The dollar climb was broad and adds to the headache for officials in Japan who are trying to limit USD/JPY gains.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.