JP Morgan says they do not expect a Bank of Japan rate cut in July, or at all in 2024

Via analysts at JP Morgan Private Bank, an outlook for the BoJ and yen. The TL;DR version is:

• A July hike from the BoJ is not our base case, nor do we expect a hike for the rest of 2024.
• Its too early to turn bullish on the yen

More:

JPMy can see arguments the BoJ could make to hike this month:

• The strongest argument for hiking as soon as the July meeting would be related to the currency – in other words, to pre-emptively limit the potential cost of further JPY weakness. In this regard, any sign of two-way risks around JPY helps to lessen the urgency of hiking.
• The second, weaker argument for hiking in July would be for the BoJ to prove a point. As the central bank is preparing to start reducing bond purchases in July, general market consensus is that they are unlikely to hike at the same time. The BoJ might not appreciate being seen as having their hands tied, and might want to prove they have full policy flexibility. We don’t think investors should be overly concerned about this

And, on not hiking:

• The main reasoning is that a hike at this point is premature given where we are in the growth cycle.
• The main growth driver at the moment is the corporate sector, which is reporting higher profits, strong export growth, and a positive capex outlook. All of these are on full display in the equity market, where earnings outlooks are still being revised higher. But the positive vibe isn’t shared broadly, as consumers have taken the brunt of inflation over the last two years. Consumers are just starting to recover from this inflation shock thanks to stronger wage growth. Nominal wage growth accelerated to 2.7% in June, and we have positive expectations that wage growth can settle in the 3-4% range by the end of 2024. That said, it will likely still take time for consumer sentiment to improve, as reflected in the soft consumption data.

On the yen:

• Fundamentally, the deeply negative carry against the dollar has been the key reason behind yen weakness, and small moves in carry have historically not been sufficient to support the yen in a significant way.

  If a BoJ rate hike is not imminent, the Fed will likely continue to be in the driver’s seat in determining the yen’s fate. After last week’s CPI, the bar seems high for the Fed to move faster than what the market currently anticipates (i.e. more than two cuts this year).

• Short of a meaningful deterioration in the U.S. economy, the pace of cuts will likely remain gradual, which means it could take some time before carry becomes less punitive for investors and corporates to start accumulating the yen.
• All of these tell us that it might be still too early to turn bullish on the yen.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda.

The BoJ next meet on July 30 and 31.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.