US non-farm payrolls data – the critical key ranges for estimates to watch

The July employment report is due from the US on Friday 2 August 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT

Adam had a preview posted earlier:

• Preview: July non-farm payrolls lands in a worried market

You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below:

• The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result.
• The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the ‘expected’ in the screenshot above) for the key data points:

Headline NFP number:

• 70,000 to 225,000

Unemployment rate:

• 4.0% to 4.2%

Average hourly earnings m/m:

• 0.2% to 0.4%

Average hourly earnings y/y:

• 3.6% to 3.9%

***

I posted this info earlier, during the Asian timezone. If you’d like my reasoning on why being aware of the above ranges are good to know going into such a critical data release, check out that earlier post here:

• Why is knowledge of such ranges important?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.