RBA decision in the next hour, no change to the cash rate expected

After the global selloff in markets since Friday, watchful eyes are turning to the RBA later to see what they have to say about it. But calmer heads so far today will at least help them to sidestep some of that pressure. And they are likely to be able to distract from things and stick to the status quo on policy.

No change to the cash rate is expected this time around, especially after the Q2 CPI report here. There were worries about the need to hike rates in order to tame the inflation beast. But those have now subsided and markets are not really leaning in that direction anymore.

As things stand, traders are pricing in a ~91% probability of there being no change today. Meanwhile, they are looking to November as the first action point with a rate cut then priced at a ~96% probability.

In terms of language, most of what we saw in June should stick around once more. The most important bit being that the RBA is “not ruling anything in or out” in terms of their next policy steps.

After having hit a low of 0.6347 during the selloff yesterday, AUD/USD is in a much better spot today. The pair is trading up 0.3% to 0.6511 currently. Buyers will hope to market a double-bottom pattern via the April and yesterday’s lows.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.