Economic calendar in Asia 08 August 2024 – BOJ, RBA and RBNZ all incoming

With the way Japanese financial markets are swinging around I suspect the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions will have an impact. The ‘Summary’ today is of the most recent meeting, when the Bank raised interest rates and announced a trimming of Japanese Government Bond purchases.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a “Summary of Opinions” after each monetary policy meeting. It serves as a record of the discussion and views of the Policy Board members on various economic and financial issues.

Key points about the Summary:

• The summary includes the views of the Policy Board members on economic conditions, both domestically and globally. This includes assessments of economic growth, inflation, and employment trends, among other indicators.
• The summary also outlines the Policy Board members’ views on the effectiveness of the BOJ’s current monetary policy measures, including interest rate policy, asset purchases, and yield curve control. Members may discuss the pros and cons of these policies and their potential impact on the economy.
• The summary includes discussions on the outlook for monetary policy and the potential risks to the economy. Board members may express their views on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy changes, as well as the potential impact of external factors such as global economic conditions.
• The summary also includes any dissenting views among the Policy Board members. If a member disagrees with the majority view on a particular issue, they may express their own opinion and rationale.

In a few week’s time we’ll get the Minutes of this meeting. The Minutes are a more detailed record of the discussions and decisions made during the meeting.

• The Minutes include a more complete record of the views expressed, including any dissents or alternative opinions that may not be included in the summary.
• The Summary of Opinions is typically released a few days after the policy meeting, while the Minutes are published about a month later. This means that the Summary of Opinions can provide more up-to-date information on the BOJ’s current stance and view on the economy and monetary policy.
• The Summary of Opinions is usually written in a more accessible language, making it easier to understand the BOJ’s views on monetary policy.
• The Minutes, on the other hand, are often more technical and may require a deeper understanding of economics and financial markets.
• The Summary of Opinions is typically shorter than the Minutes.

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Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is speaking on:

• Economic Conditions in Post-Pandemic Australia with a Regional Lens

On Tuesday we got the latest decision from the RBA (on hold) and a press conference from Bullock. She, and the Board, are perceived as hawkish. Its doubtful there will be another rate hike, but a cut appears a long way off. Market pricing indicates December.

• RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected
• RBA governor Bullock: Inflation progress has been slow for a year now
• RBA governor Bullock: A rate cut is not on the agenda in the near-term
• The response to the RBA meeting yesterday is a 25bp rate cut priced for December 2024

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) conducts a quarterly Inflation Expectations Survey to gauge the expectations of various economic agents about future inflation rates.

The survey aims to provide insights into the inflation expectations of businesses, economists, and financial market participants. These expectations can influence actual inflation outcomes and monetary policy decisions.

Participants provide their expectations for inflation over the next 12 months and the next two years. The two year horizon is the important one for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, it views this as a reasonable time frame over which its policy changes impact. The most recent result of the survey, for Q2 2024, published back in May, showed 2-year Inflation expectations dropping to 2.3% (prior 2.5%). A welcome result.

The RBNZ meet on August 14. An on-hold decision is widely expected. Having said that a rate cut is certainly not off the table.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.