Bank of America on Powell speaking at Jackson Hole – to keep aggressive easing option open

Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak during his regular time slot at Jackson Hole, Friday morning of the event at 10am:

• Federal Reserve Chair Powell to speak at 10am US Eastern time on August 23

Bank of America say that Powell’s speech is unlikely to have much impact on the US dollar. Analysts at the bank note that funds are still positioned for a stronger dollar, which may pose downside risk. But, even if Powell speaks dovishly its going to be difficult for him to sound more dovish than market expectations are pricing:

• BoA cite markets pricing four cuts this year
• “We do not think Powell will push against market pricing, keeping the option for aggressive easing depending on the data before the September meeting.”

BoA are right on the swing to dovish seen by markets. The ’50bp cut in September’ bandwagon is rolling:

• JP Morgan says the Fed has a green light for a 50bp rate cut in Sep. Here’s the trigger.
• Morgan Stanley flag potential 50bp Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Septembr rate cut

Not everyone agrees, of course

• UBS says doesn’t see reason for 50bp Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut in Sept

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.