US job seekers rise to highest since 2014 in NY Fed survey

The New York Fed yesterday released its quarterly survey of the employment market and there was a notable softening.

• Job seekers jump to 28.4% in July 2024, highest since March 2014
• The increase was most pronounced among respondents older than age 45, those without a college degree, and those with an annual household income less than $60,000.
• Job satisfaction down across wages, benefits, and promotion opportunities
• Unemployment expectations hit series high at 4.4%

The expected wage of job seekers also fell 3.2% y/y, with workers now anticipating offers around $65,272, down from $67,416 a year ago. This decline in wage expectations could signal softer labor market conditions ahead.

Job satisfaction also dropped, particularly among women, non-college grads, and lower-income households.

It’s not all bad news though, increased job seeking and a higher transition rate could indicate a dynamic jobs market with more opportunities. The reservation wage also rose from a year ago and the expected likelihood of receiving a job offer rose to 22.2% from 18.7% a year ago. This suggests optimism about job prospects.

On net though, falling job satisfaction and wage expectations are negative.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.