ECB accounts: Next meeting widely seen as good time to evaluate policy restrictiveness

• Medium-term outlook had not changed overall relative to June meeting
• Short-term outlook has become somewhat more “stagflationary”
• But weaker activity is likely to dampen inflation over time
• Economic balance remains lopsided, mostly still driven by services activity
• Labour market remains tight
• The persistence in services inflation remains the central element shaping the inflation outlook
• Inflation could turn out higher than anticipated if wages increased by more than expected
• Monetary policy transmission was unfolding according to expectations
• Extensive new data will be available by the time September meeting takes place
• The meeting is seen as a good time to re-evaluate the level of monetary policy restriction
• But should be approached with an open mind, which also implies data dependence
• Full accounts

They still have about three weeks to guide markets the other way if they so choose not to cut again next month. But given the balance of probabilities and the prevailing language at the moment, a 25 bps rate cut is pretty much locked in.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.