What are the main events for today?

Today is going to be the busiest day of the week in terms of risk events on the agenda. The highlights include the ECB Rate Decision, the US Jobless Claims and the US PPI.

12:15 GMT/08:15 ET – ECB Policy Decision

The ECB is
expected to cut by 25 bps and bring the policy rate to 3.50%. This rate cut has
been strongly telegraphed since July. After today’s rate cut, the market expects the central bank to
deliver at least another 25 bps cut by year-end. Athough President
Lagarde might not explicitly pre-commit to a back-to-back cut in October, she might keep such an option on the table “depending on the data”.

12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US Jobless Claims

The US Jobless
Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims
have been on a sustained rise (although they’ve improved recently) showing that
layoffs are not accelerating and remain at low levels while hiring is more
subdued.

This week Initial
Claims are expected at 230K vs. 227K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at
1850K vs. 1838K prior.

12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US August PPI

The US PPI Y/Y is expected at 1.8% vs. 2.2% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.1% prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs. 2.4% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.2% vs.0.0% prior.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.