Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 118 bps (59% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 250 bps

• ECB: 39 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 157 bps

• BoE: 54 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 172 bps

• BoC: 67 bps (76% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 212 bps

• RBA: 22 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 113 bps

• RBNZ: 87 bps (75% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 246 bps

• SNB: 57 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 76 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 8 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 28 bps

(*Where you see 25 bps probability, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.