Australian August Monthly CPI preview – Westpac expect 2.7% y/y for the monthly read

This is via Westpac’s preview of the inflation data due from Australia on Wendesday 25 September at 11.30 am Sydney time

• 0130 GMT, 2130 US Eastern time

In brief:

• WPAC near-cast for the August Monthly CPI Indicator is –0.2%mth/2.7%yr.
• For the September quarter CPI our near-cast is 0.3%qtr/2.9%yr. …. Our near-cast for the
  Trimmed Mean is 0.7%qtr/3.5%yr.
• Driving prices down in August is the further extension of the household energy rebates (particularly for, but not limited to, NSW and Vic) plus falling auto fuel, holiday travel and garments.
• Pushing prices up in August are rents, dwellings, food, alcohol & tobacco, household contents & services and finance & insurance.
• Being the second month of the quarter, August provides an update on the services surveyed in the mid-month of each quarter.
• preliminary August near-cast for market services ex volatile is 0.3%mth/4.6%yr.

Note that second line of the points above. The quarter CPI forecast is 2.9%, which is still under the 3% top of the target band.

The RBA will be breathing a little easier if that is the case. Note also, though, the quarterly CPI is not due until October 30. It’s the quarterly CPI that will be of most focus for the RBA. The monthly inflation data is not the ‘official’ rate, and its not as complete as the quarterly data.

The current cash and CPI rates from the front page of the RBA website – there is scope for the cash rate to to be trimmed if the CPI falls. IMO anyway.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.