Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 74 bps (51% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 190 bps

• ECB: 49 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 171 bps

• BoE: 37 bps (78% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 152 bps

• BoC: 73 bps (52% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 204 bps

• RBA: 18 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 103 bps

• RBNZ: 92 bps (69% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 245 bps

• SNB: 27 bps (92% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 75 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 5 bps (82% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 27 bps

(*Where you see 25 bps probability, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.