Chief economists in the US say a 2025 recession is only a 30% chance

The American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee brings together15 chief economists from some of North America’s largest banks.

The Committee chair notes the Fed is close to achieving its dual mandate, but warns the softening labor market needs monitoring

• Fed seen cutting rates by additional 150bps through end-2025
• Sees solid 2% growth in H2 2024 and 2025
• Recession risk steady at 30% for 2025
• Unemployment expected to peak at 4.4% in H1 2025
• PCE inflation forecast to hit Fed’s 2% target by Q2 2025
• Credit availability expected to expand, quality to remain stable
• Bank consumer delinquency rates projected at 2.7% in 2025

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Earlier:

• Federal Reserve Chair Powell leaned against expectations of continuing large rate cuts

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.