100bp of rate cuts coming up from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, beginning next week

There is a cascade of 50bp rate cut calls for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting next week:

• ANZ say the path of least resistance for the RBNZ is a 50bp interest rate cut next week

• More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZ

• Here is another forecast for a 50bp interest rate cut from the RBNZ next week
• HSBC expect a 50bp interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand next week

TD are projecting a 50bp rate cut next week also, but adding they expect the same size cut at the November meeting.

Analysts at TD are maintaining their forecast for a 50 basis point cut in the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) at next week’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR). However, they have revised their outlook for the November Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) meeting, now anticipating a larger 50 basis point cut instead of the previously expected 25 basis point reduction.

Looking ahead to 2025, the analysts foresee the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) implementing consecutive rate cuts, bringing the OCR down to 3% by the August meeting. This marks a shift from their earlier projection, which had anticipated the RBNZ reaching 3% with cuts delivered only at MPS meetings throughout 2025 and 2026.

Bond forecasts have seen minimal adjustments, given the analysts’ previous bullish stance on rates. They see limited potential for a substantial rally in rates based on domestic conditions.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.