US September non-farm payrolls +254K vs +140K expected

• Two-month net revision: +72K vs -86K prior
• Unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% prior
• Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.0510% vs 4.220% prior
• Participation rate: 62.7% vs 62.7% prior
• Private payrolls +223K vs 118K prior
• Prior private payrolls +118K revised to +114K
• U6 underemployment rate: 7.7% vs 7.9% prior
• Average hourly earnings: +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expected
• Prior avg hourly earnings: +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)
• Average hourly earnings: 4.0% vs +3.8% y/y expected
• Average weekly hours: 34.2 vs 34.3 prior
• Change in manufacturing payrolls: -7K vs -24K prior
• Household survey: +430K vs +168K prior
• Government jobs: +31K vs +24K prior
• Full time: +631K vs -438K prior
• Part time: -201K vs +527K prior
• Full report

Prior to the data, the market was pricing in a 32% of the Fed lowering rates by 50 basis points at the November 7 meeting. USD/JPY was trading at 146.58 ahead of the numbers.

The unemployment rate very nearly fell to 4.0% and this is the strongest headline reading since March. I think you can bury the idea of 50 basis points on this, even if the October report is soft.

The US dollar understandably jumped on this report as it’s very difficult to poke holes in any of it. USD/JPY is particularly strong, now up 160 pips since the report to 148.18.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.