New Zealand – RBNZ shadow board equally divided on 25 or 50bp rate cut this week

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research report on the views on their Reserve Bank of New Zealand “Shadow Board’.

The NZIER Shadow Board remains split over the extent of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) next move on the Official Cash Rate (OCR) ahead of the upcoming October Monetary Policy Review. Half of the board members advocate for a 50 basis-point cut, citing concerns about the persistent weakness and increasing excess capacity within the New Zealand economy. They also point to the softening in headline inflation and inflation expectations, which, in their view, justify a more accommodative monetary policy stance. The remainder favor a more cautious approach, recommending a 25 basis-point reduction due to lingering upside risks in non-tradable inflation.

Looking further ahead, the Shadow Board expects the RBNZ to maintain its easing cycle over the coming year, with most members predicting the OCR to settle between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent within 12 months.

2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday is

• 0115 GMT
• 2130 US Eastern time (on Tuesday)

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Earlier previews:

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut next week, 97% chance of a 50 basis points

• RBNZ preview – most likely cut the cash rate by 50bps next week, and again in November

• ANZ say the path of least resistance for the RBNZ is a 50bp interest rate cut next week

• More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZ

• Here is another forecast for a 50bp interest rate cut from the RBNZ next week
• HSBC expect a 50bp interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand next week

• 100bp of rate cuts coming up from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, beginning next week

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The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a ‘shadow board’ of analysts.

• The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do.
• That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will happen, but what they think should happen.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.