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Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 52 bps (94% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 142 bps

  • ECB: 50 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 148 bps

  • BoE: 36 bps (93% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 118 bps

  • BoC: 58 bps (84% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 160 bps

  • RBA: 11 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 67 bps

  • RBNZ: 91 bps (94% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 222 bps

  • SNB: 28 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 54 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 8 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 33 bps

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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