Goldman Sachs: GBP outlook remains constructive despite recent setbacks

Goldman Sachs has exited its long GBP/CHF position with a small profit last week, noting that Sterling has underperformed its usual risk beta. Despite recent tactical setbacks influenced by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey’s comments and geopolitical developments, Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook on the British pound, supported by structural drivers and a positive global risk environment.

Key Points:

• Exiting GBP/CHF Position:

  • Goldman Sachs exited its long GBP/CHF position last week, realizing a small profit.
  • Sterling has underperformed its typical risk beta this week, influenced by strong signals from BoE Governor Bailey.

• BoE Communications and Policy Outlook:

  • Governor Bailey suggested that continued disinflation could lead the BoE to become “a bit more aggressive on rate cuts.”
  • Despite Bailey’s comments, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill emphasized a gradual approach and cautioned against cutting rates “too far or too fast,” aligning with the Bank’s recent policy stance.
  • Goldman Sachs remains cautious about interpreting Bailey’s remarks as a definitive shift in the BoE’s policy direction without additional context.

• Relative Performance and Market Dynamics:

  • While GBP has been a favored long position in G10 currencies, it has recently underperformed against AUD, which has benefited from the repricing of China’s growth outcomes.
  • Goldman Sachs was also stopped out of its long GBP/CHF recommendation on a small profit due to a risk-off move triggered by geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

• Strategic Outlook and Structural Drivers:

  • Goldman Sachs views the recent setbacks to Sterling as tactical factors rather than indicative of a fundamental shift.
  • The firm maintains a constructive outlook on GBP, supported by a risk-on global backdrop and positive domestic growth momentum.
  • Despite short-term volatility, the structural drivers for a strong GBP remain intact, reinforcing the long-term positive outlook.

Conclusion:

Despite recent tactical setbacks and underperformance against AUD, Goldman Sachs maintains a positive and constructive outlook on the GBP. The firm attributes this confidence to underlying structural factors and a supportive global risk environment, while remaining vigilant of potential volatility stemming from central bank communications and geopolitical risks. Investors are encouraged to consider these factors when positioning their GBP trades, recognizing the resilience and long-term strength of sterling.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.