The Memecoin Supercycle Thesis Is Bitcoin Aligned

Murad Mahmudov is back igniting our X timelines, but you may have noticed these days the “former” Bitcoin maximalist isn’t posting much about Bitcoin.

For the uninitiated, Murad is a Bitcoin maximalist, albeit one who has run the ire of the culture for taboo ideas: see his 2021-2022 embrace of wrapped Bitcoin assets on other blockchains, and most recently, his incessant writing about a “memecoin supercycle.”

It’s a far cry from his posts circa 2018, when could be seen on “The Pomp Podcast,” saying things like “Bitcoin is the soundest hardest currency that has ever been invented in history.”

So, how did he get from that admission to advocating for a portfolio of PEPE and GIGA, his most recent mantra that you should “invest in cults?”

Well, it starts with the post above, one of a few that’s got me thinking Murad is on to something.

To be clear, what we’re talking about here is a complete disregard for the idea that a belief in Bitcoin as a currency requires one to have some kind of moral duty. While this has been made fashionable of late, advocated by the likes of Michael Saylor and Jimmy Song, I’ve never seen a compelling argument that Bitcoin maximalism requires you to forsake financial speculation.

It’s quite simply a moral choice, extrinsic to the technology, and one everyone is free to make for themselves. Yes, it’s bad to scam people. No, no one can stop you but you. 

To this effect, Murad appears to be signaling that in this next cycle he intends to profit from the general collapse in confidence ongoing in altcoin land, and is merely going against the grain.

Putting aside the moral issue, there’s a lot to like about Murad’s thesis. I’d go so far as to argue, most Bitcoin maximalists would agree with most of it. 

Essentially, he’s betting on two concurrent trends that really cut to the heart of the movement:

1. Bitcoin is really on its way to becoming the world’s dominant asset. It’s completely mispriced in the present, and will one day be the only remaining crypto asset and the money of the world.
2. The crypto VC apparatus is collapsing slowly. Despite their years of claimed tech advances, there is little to show for the engineering. All altcoins will fail to compete with Bitcoin, and we’re beginning to see this because retail investors are only buying random memecoins.

All this is to say, is it really so hard to believe that in between these two truths will lie a messy period of complete crypto degeneracy?

IMO, you don’t need to speculate on this to think it’s hilarious. 

Expect Murad to become more relevant as this thesis plays out.