RBNZ’s own preferred inflation model 3.4% y/y for Q3 2024 (prior 3.6%)

Earlier today we had the official CPI data from NZ:

• New Zealand Q3 CPI 0.6% q/q (expected 0.7%) & 2.2% y/y (expected 2.2%)
• RBNZ’s Silk says confident inflation will converge to 2% target midpoint in medium term

You can see in the screenshot from the RBNZ below that their own model of inflation is not low as the StztsNZ CPI released earlier.

You can see the clear disparity between tradable and non-tradable inflation in the final four columns.

–

The Bank on its own model:

• We created the sectoral factor model. It estimates the common component of inflation in the CPI basket, the tradable basket, and the non-tradable basket, based upon separate factors for the tradable and non-tradable sectors. The data excludes GST.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.