Wednesday , 6 November 2024
Home Forex Crude Oil Technical Analysis – We completely erased the geopolitical rally
Forex

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – We completely erased the geopolitical rally

Fundamental
Overview

Crude oil basically erased
the entire rally first triggered by the Iranian missile attack against Israel
in the first days of October. We are now back to square one as the market
awaits the key catalysts in the next few weeks.

In the big picture, central
bank easing generally leads the manufacturing cycle, so we can expect global
growth to pick up and support the crude oil market. One risk that might be
weighing on the market is the US elections as a Trump victory might be bearish
due to increased supply expectations.

In 2016, crude oil did fall
initially on the Trump victory but eventually rallied for more than 20% in the
following three months on higher global growth expectations. So, it’s going to
be a tricky one, but global growth should eventually prevail.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is testing a key barrier around the 71.67 level where the
price got rejected from several times in the past months. The buyers will want
to see the price breaking higher to start targeting the 77 handle next, while
the sellers will likely step in here with a defined risk above the level to
position for new lows.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for further
upside, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish
bets into the 65 handle.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action. There’s not much to add here as the
buyers will look for a break higher to position for a rally into the 77 handle,
while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 65 handle. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US Jobless Claims and the US Flash PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Leave a comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Articles

The US treasury auctions off $25B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.608%

High Yield 4.608%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.63%Tail: -2.2...

US treasury to auction $25B of 30 year bonds testing the buyers appetite

The US treasury will auction off $25B of the "grand-daddy of them...

EURUSD moves down toward triple bottom in June and bounces. Sellers still in control.

The EURUSD moved higher before the results of the election started to...

Nomura now sees just one Fed rate cut in 2025 after Trump win

Nomura anticipates that the Fed will respond cautiously to a Trump administration...