Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 42 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 119 bps
- ECB: 23 bps (91% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 121 bps
- BoE: 30 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 94 bps
- BoC: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 114 bps
- RBA: 5 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 52 bps
- RBNZ: 54 bps (84% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/16% for a 75 bps cut)
2025: 152 bps
- SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 70 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 36 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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