US dollar is lower to start the new week after Harris jump in poll

The influential Selzer poll out of Iowa showed a Harris lead over the weekend. That is not supposed to happen, and led to the USD moviing lower on the news. The US yields are lower. The US stocks are trading mixed (Dow modestly lower, S&P and Nasdaq modestly higher). European stocks are mostly higher. 10 year yield in Europe are mixed (Germans down -0.3 bps, UK gilt up 0.8 bps). In the European session the economic data was mixed.

• EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI: 54.5 (actual) vs 53.1 (forecast). Stronger

• EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI: 46.9 (actual) vs 48.8 (forecast). Weaker

• EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI: 44.5 (actual) vs 44.5 (forecast). Met expectations

• EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI: 43.0 (actual) vs 42.6 (forecast). Stronger

• EUR Final Manufacturing PMI: 46.0 (actual) vs 45.9 (forecast). Marginally stronger

• EUR Sentix Investor Confidence: -12.8 (actual) vs -12.7 (forecast) Met estimates

US electon on Tuesday. Fed on Thursday (25 basis point cut expected). The RBA will anounce its rate decision on Tuesday (later tonight) with no change expected). The BOE is expected to cut 25 basis points.

What are the technicals saying for the major currency pairs vs the USD.

EURUSD: The EURUSD gapped higher and in the process moved back above the 100 bar MA at 1.0849 AND the 200 day MA at 1.0869 (and swing area up to 1.0872). The price moved up to a swing area near 1.0899 and 1.09126. The midpoint of the move up from April low comes in at 1.09069. The high reached just above at 1.0914 just above the high target. The price is trading at 1.0905 currently. Get and stay above the 1.09126 would have traders looking toward the 100-day MA at 1.09388 and a swing area up to 1.0949.

USDJPY. The USDJPY gapped below the 100 and 200-hour MAs (at 152.76 and 152.65 respectively). The move lower also moved below a swing area and down to the 200-day MA at 151.556 9the low reached 151.527). The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, 50% of the move lower from July at 150.757 and the 100 day MA at 150.355. There is a lot of support targets in the way for more downside. It will take breaks below each to tilt the bias more in the favor of the sellers. Each – including the 200-day MA – could stall the fall too. A move back above 151.937 could lead to more of a bounce after the 200-day MA test.

GBPUSD: The GBUSD moved higher over the weekend and in the process extended above teh 100 day MA at 1.29807 and toward the 1.3000 natural resistance level. That is near the broken 38.2% of the move up from the April low at 1.2999. The high price reached 1.29983 and selles stalled the rise. That 1.3000 level needs to be broken to increase the bullish bias going forward. The price isa at 1.2962 currently to start the US session. Last week, the price moved above that MA level and failed.

On the downside, there is support at 1.2938 is a key swing level that if broken would increase the bearish bias once again (see solid read on the chart below).

USDCHF. The USDCHF Is making a break back below the 38.2% of the move down from the July 2024 high at 0.86318. That area has been a tough nut to crack since breaking above (see Red Box on the chart below). The price has been trading above and below the 38.2% level in the current hourly bar, after moving to the high of a swing area at 0.86078 to 0.8619 and bouncing. It will take a move above the 0.86318 and then the broken 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.86475 to give the buyers more confidence once again.

USDCAD: The USDCAD is trading between the 100 and 200-hour MA between 1.39168 to 1.38889. The low reached 1.3892 and bounced modestly. The price is trading at 1.38993. The traders will be looking for a move below the 200-hour MA (first break since October 2) or above the 100-hour MA again at 1.39168. The price has moved below the 100-hour MA since October 2, but those breaks failed including on Thursday and Friday last week (but only briefly).

AUDUSD: The AUDUSD moved higher at the open, but stalled at 0.66184. That was near the low of a swing area target between 0.66189 to 0.66277. The 200 day MA is at 0.66277. The price of the AUDUSD needs to get and stay above that area (and MA) to give the buyers more control. On the first shot, the buyers missed. The sellers remain in control. The price is back down at 0.6596 currently. On the downside watch the 61.8% of the move up from the August low at 0.6575 to give sellers more control.

NZDUSD: The NZDUSD moved above the 200-hour MA earlier today and above the high from last week at 0.60000 too. The high reached 0.60144 but rotated back down. The price moved back below the broken 200-hour MA at 0.5985 but remained above the 100-hour MA at 0.59744. The current price is back above the 200-hour MA at 0.59924. The price needs to get back above the high from last week at 0.6000 level to give the buyers more confidence today.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.