USDCAD falls below the 100 and 200 hour MAs. First break below 200 hour MA since October 2

The USDCAD broke higher at the end of last week and in the process extended above high from August at 1.39458. The high price reached 1.3958 and closed the week at 1.39484.

However, after the weekend election poll news, yields moved lower, the USD moved lower and the USDCAD gapped down as well. That took the price back below the old 2024 high and also took the price below the 100-hour MA at 1.39168 and more recently the 200 hour MA at 1.38896.

The break below the 200-hour MA is the first break since October 2 (over a month ago). So sellers are making a play. The 200-hour MA is now close resistance/risk for sellers looking for more downside momentum.

On the downside there is some support at 1.3864 area and below that a swing area between 1.38337 and 1.38475. The rising 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart is at 1.3843. Move below that area opens the door for more downside corrective probiing after the trend move higher in October.

A move back above the 200 hour MA at 1.38895 would have traders looking back toward 1.39168.

Of course lots of volatility is expected this week as a result of the US elections followed by the US interest-rate decision on Thursday. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. What they do in December and going forward would be the focus from the meeting.

With volatility expected, it is important to understand the technical levels in play as they give traders the risk defining levels, and targets going forward.

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USDCAD Technical Analysis

The USDCAD broke higher late last week, surpassing August’s high (1.39458) and reaching 1.3958, but subsequently gapped down due to weekend election poll news.

Current Market Situation

The price fell below the old 2024 high, 100-hour MA (1.39168), and 200-hour MA (1.38896), indicating sellers’ momentum.

Key Levels

Resistance:

• 1.38896 (200-hour MA, close resistance/risk for sellers)

• 1.39168 (100-hour MA)

Support:

• 1.3864 (support area)

• 1.38337-1.38475 (swing area)

• 1.3843 (rising 100-bar MA on 4-hour chart)

Market Outlook

A break below 1.3843 may lead to further downside correction, while a move above 1.38896 could shift focus back to 1.39168.

Key Events

• US elections (this week)

• US interest-rate decision (Thursday, expected 25 basis point cut)

Understanding these technical levels is crucial amid expected volatility, providing risk-defining levels and targets for traders.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.