What to keep an eye out for now in the race for control of the House?

It all comes down to this now in determining whether or not we will see a red sweep in the election. The latest NYT projection has Republicans at 197 seats and Democrats at 177 seats. Remember, the magic number is 218 seats for a majority for the House. So, what has happened so far and what should you look out for next?

According to the NYT projection, Republicans will have to win 27 (11 called already) of what they deem to be ‘competitive’ districts out of a pool of 69 districts. Meanwhile, Democrats will need to win 43 (18 called already) of those to almost certainly win the House race. On paper, it might seem an easier task for the Republicans but just be wary that the pool that is listed here also has a heavy lean towards districts that Democrats are expected to win.

And as outlined here earlier, things are playing out accordingly for the most part. But there are a couple of exceptions. When you narrow the pool down to districts that Democrats are expected to marginally win, you have this:

A shoutout to Adam Carlson (@ admcrlsn) for his insight in identifying the districts above.

Going back to the list above, one can see that Republicans are on the verge of pulling a couple of “upsets” here. That being in the districts of Nebraska 2, Pennsylvania 7, and Pennsylvania 8. That will make the task of reaching the much needed 27 seats much easier once these districts are confirmed to be called in their favour.

That especially when you look at the narrowed down pool of districts that Republicans are expected to marginally win:

Republicans seem to be coping well in these districts with not much issues so far. Sure, they are behind by slight margins in Arizona 6 and California 41 but the vote counts are still low for the time being.

Then, you have the districts which are believed to be toss ups:

I would expect a recount in Iowa 1 regardless of whoever wins. As for the others, it’s early but California 22 and California 45 districts are leaning Republican while Washington 3 is leaning Democrat.

According to the maths, Republicans need just 16 more seats and if you take in the three “upsets” into the picture, all they need is just 13 more seats from the above list alongside other key strongholds that have yet to be called. Just take your pick of Arizona 2, Arizona 5, Arizona 8, California 3, California 40, Colorado 3, Colorado 5, Washington 4, and Washington 5.

Putting it all together, a red sweep is very much on the cards barring any major upsets.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.