Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 43 bps (100% probability of rate cut at today’s decision)

2025: 106 bps

• ECB: 27 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 133 bps

• BoE: 31 bps (94% probability of rate cut at today’s decision)

2025: 87 bps

• BoC: 36 bps (55% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 102 bps

• RBA: 3 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 46 bps

• RBNZ: 51 bps (95% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/5% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 143 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 10 bps (60% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 40 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.