AUDUSD has a up and down week, but the bias is lower going into the new week

The AUDUSD price action this week was up and down. The close from a week ago was at 0.6558. The current price is at 0.6562. Not a lot of change at the current level.

However, in between, the price moved higher into the election. It moved lower with the dollar buying through the election. It move sharply higher yesterday and is back lower to where the week ended last week.

What are the technicals saying?

The upside into the election took the price today 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low to the September high. That level came in at 0.66451.

The subsequent move to the downside to the election took the price below the low price from last week at 0.653572 a low of 0.6511. That was just short of a swing low from August 7 and August 8 at 0.6506. The price started its move higher.

When the price move back above a key cluster of technical levels including its

• 100 bar moving average on a 4-hour chart at 0.66226,
• it’s 200 day moving average and 0.66287, and
• swing area between 0.66189 and 0.66287.

The buying momentum increased with the price moving toward the 100 day moving average at 0.66904. The high price for the week reached 0.6688 just below that moving average before starting to move back to the downside in trading on Friday.

The price on Friday rotated back below the key cluster of technical levels. That cluster between 0.66189 and 0.66287 will be the key barometer going into the new trading week. If the price can stay below it (and right now it is), the sellers are in control. The technical bias is to the downside.

The downside targets include prior swing lows at 0.6562, 0.65357 (the low price from last week), and 0.6506 (lows from August 7 and 8 and near the low for the week.

If the aforementioned cluster of resistance is broken at 0.66287, I would expect more buying two push the price through the 50% midpoint at 0.6645 and make another run at the 100 day MA at 0.66904. Above that and the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and broken 38.2% comes in at 0.6715.

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AUDUSD Update

Key Points

1. AUDUSD price action: volatile, ending near last week’s close (0.6558-0.6562).

2. Technical levels:

• 50% midpoint: 0.66451

• Key cluster: 0.66189-0.66287 (100-bar MA, 200-day MA, swing area)

• 100-day MA: 0.66904

3. Market sentiment: sellers in control below 0.66189-0.66287.

Trading Bias

1. Bearish: Sustaining below 0.66189-0.66287.

2. Bullish: Breaking above 0.66287.

Key Levels

1. Resistance:

• 0.66287 (cluster)

• 0.66451 (50% midpoint)

• 0.66904 (100-day MA)

• 0.6715 (200-bar MA, 38.2%)

2. Support:

• 0.6562 (prior swing low)

• 0.65357 (last week’s low)

• 0.6506 (Aug 7-8 lows)

Outlook

Watch 0.66189-0.66287 cluster for direction; breakdown favors sellers, breakout favors buyers.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.