Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 20 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 82 bps
- ECB: 28 bps (88% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 138 bps
- BoE: 5 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 64 bps
- BoC: 39 bps (58% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 100 bps
- RBA: 3 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 46 bps
- RBNZ: 53 bps (85% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/15% for a 75 bps cut)
2025: 143 bps
- SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 70 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 10 bps (60% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 41 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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