Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 20 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 82 bps

• ECB: 28 bps (88% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 138 bps

• BoE: 5 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 64 bps

• BoC: 39 bps (58% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 100 bps

• RBA: 3 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 46 bps

• RBNZ: 53 bps (85% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/15% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 143 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 10 bps (60% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 41 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.