ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Awaiting US CPI data

• Fed speakers on energy, the economy, and maybe policy due on Wednesday
• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)
• AUD traders heads up – Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks Thursday
• The argument for a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut remains very thin
• Japan’s Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaking Wednesday
• Australia – “Wage inflation is moderating as expected”
• PBoC promised stronger damping to support CNY, and that’s what are seeing
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1991 (vs. estimate at 7.2305)
• Dogecoin catches a bid on Trump’s new DOGE department headed by Musk
• Trump names Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy to lead Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
• Australia data – Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)
• Japan PPI (October) +0.2% m/m (expected 0%) and +3.4% y/y (expected +3.0%)
• Barclays on oil – current market dynamics relatively stable, doesn’t foresee major shifts
• ECB Interest Rate Forecast: Deutsche Bank’s 7 reasons for projecting a lower terminal rate
• BoA expect a 4% EPS benefit for S&P 500 equites from Trump corporate tax cuts
• US CPI data due Wednesday – possible upside surprise.
• Green shoots in China Excavator sales grew 15% in October
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 12 Nov: Bitcoin hits $90K. Stocks fall. USD moves higher.
• NY Fed Perli says there’s been more friction in money mkts lately, repo rate rise orderly
• Amazon’s Bezos sells US$1.25bn of shares
• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 13 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Small
ranges prevailed during Asia time with many traders content to wait
until the US inflation data later.

• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)

Data
events during the session here were lower-tier. We had PPI data from
Japan coming in higher than expected. Renewed yen weakness pushed up
import costs for some goods. At the margin, an argument can be made
that the data was supportive of a nearer-term Bank of Japan rate
hike. Against this is, of course, is the new political pressure on the
Bank to not hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of
wage negotiations in (Japan’s) spring. Many months away. The Bank of
Japan next meet on December 18 – 19.

USD/JPY
moved a little higher, but didn’t get to 155.00. As I post its
around the middle of its session range circa 154.80.

Data
from Australia showed wage growth moderating a little. This is not
sufficient for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate any
time soon. The next meeting is December 9 – 10, and then in
February (17 – 18).

Earlier
this week People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized
that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will
  step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should
  resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today
the Bank set the USD/CNY reference rate more than 300 points lower
than model estimates (ie a stronger yuan). The Bank delivered on its
word to support the yuan. Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH).

Bitcoin
sat near US$88K.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.