Fed’s Logan: Models show that Fed funds could be ‘very close’ to neutral

• Fed will ‘most likely’ need more cuts but should ‘proceed cautiously’
• If Fed cuts too far past neutral, inflation could re-acclerate
• Difficult to know how many Fed rate cuts may be needed, and how soon they need to happen
• Fed has made a great deal of progress in bringing inflation down
• Fed not quite back to price stability yet
• US economic activity is resilient
• Labor market cooling gradually but not weakening materially
• Sees upside risk to inflation, downside risk to employment, says financial conditions may pose biggest challenges for monetary policy
• If bond yields continue to rise, the Fed may need less-restrictive policy

Logan last spoke in late October and wasn’t quite this hawkish. I think the Fed cuts in December but takes a pause after that and waits to see how things play out.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.