What technical levels are in play for the major FX pairs vs USD to start the day (Nov 19)?

Russia’s Kremlin said that the updated nuclear doctrine signed by Putin is a very important text. Putin warned that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in an event of aggression. The US gave Ukraine permission to use long-range US missiles inside of Russia in its war with nation.

The comment helped to the pressure on stocks in premarket trading.

• Dow down -193 points,
• S&P -11.60 points and the
• NASDAQ index down -14.94 points

European shares are also lower with:

• German DAX, -1.09%.
• France’s CAC -1.16%
• UK’s FTSE 100 -0.39%
• Spain’s Ibex, -1.53%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.54%

US yields are lower on flight to safety flows:

• 2-year yield 4.240%, -4.4 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.228%, -4.6 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.370%, -4.3 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.564%, -4.2 basis points

At 8:30 AM ET today, US building permits and housing starts will be released with expectations of 1.430 million for building permits and 1.330 million for housing starts. Canada CPI data for October is expected to show a rise of 0.3% for the month and 1.9% year on year.

Bitcoin is trading at new week highs at $92,670. That is still short of the all-time highs at $93,483.

Crude oil is trading down $0.38 or -0.53% at $68.80.

EURUSD: The EURUSD had a correction day higher yesterday and stretched to the old 2024 swing area lows in the process near 1.0592 up to 1.0610. At that area, sellers entered and have pushed the pair lower and back to a swing area between 1.05158 and 1.0516. THere is another target area between 1.0483 and before the 2023 low down at 1.0448.

The declines were helped by comments from ECB Panetta who said that the ECB should move to neutral monetary stance or expansionary as officials adjust to a Trump Presidency with tariffs expected.

USDJPY: The USDJPY closed modestly higher yesterday on a day that saw the USD move lower vs all the other major currencies. The rise was modest at 0.18% but a gain is a gain in a sea of red. Today, the selling could not be avoided. The price moved down and in the process fell below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 153.65 (currently – blue line) and the broken 61.8% of the move down from the July 2024 high at 153.397. The sellers had their shot as the price moved to a low of 153.27, but failed and the price is opening the day above those levels at 154.10 currently. The 100 bar MA will now be a support target once again.

Drilling to the hourly chart, the 200 hour MA is moving sideways at 154.392 and will be a topside target that if broken should give buyers more confidence with the 100 hour MA at 155.17 as the next key target level Conversely, fail to extend back above that MA and the sellers are still in play for more downside probing (with the 100 bar MA and the broken 61.8% as targets).

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD corrected higher yesterday with the general fall in the USD and moved back up to test an old swing area between 1.2654 and 1.26858. Sellers leaned. The price rotated lower today. That move lower has moved down to the high of a lower swing area between 1.2596 to 1.26137 (the low reached 1.26123) and bounced. The price is currently trading at 1.2638 in a short term neutral area.

The sellers are more in charge but the lows from last Friday and yesterday gave buyers hope. Having said that, the high this week stalled the rise where it should have. So the buyers and sellers are in a battle to start the trading week.

Today fundamentally, BOEs Bailey said that services inflation is still above level that is compatible with on target inflation and that the Bank of England needs to watch services inflation carefully. He does not know if the recent evidence of inflation moving lower will continue. Bank of England’s Lombardelli meanwhile said that we have seen a fallen services inflation wage settlements but she sees risks to inflation on both sides. Taylor said that disinflation is unfolding as we should expect and there is a wide range of possibilities for BOE rate cuts. Finally BOEs Mann said that forward-looking price and wage indicators have been flat and above target for four months which raises the risk of inflation persistence.

So there is some good and bad from the BOE officials which is with the up-and-down’s in the GBPUSD pair at current levels.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.