Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 13 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 69 bps

• ECB: 39 bps (55% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 146 bps

• BoE: 5 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 74 bps

• BoC: 31 bps (75% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 77 bps

• RBA: 2 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 52 bps

• RBNZ: 59 bps (63% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/37% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 147 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 15 bps (58% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 48 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.