ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: RBNZ 50bp rate cut as expected, NZD jumped anyway

• Goldman Sachs estimates China’s 2024 LNG imports to revert back to previous record high
• Chief Economist & European Central Bank Executive Board member Lane speaking Wednesday
• ANZ forecast 25bp RBNZ rate cuts in February, April, and May 2025
• Goldman Sachs analyst says Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20/mmbtu
• RBNZ Gov Orr says tariffs would put up pressure on price levels globally
• Chinese defence minister placed under investigation for corruption.
• RBNZ Gov says it’s a misunderstanding that RBNZ projections show slower pace of rate cuts
• RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement Media Conference – live link
• China January- October industrial profits -4.3% y/y
• What is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand even doing? This is a horror ‘typo’/link
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1982 (vs. estimate at 7.2535)
• New Zealand dollar has surged higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand 50bp rate cut
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts cash rate by 50bp, as expected
• Revision to New Zealand data will show growth hasn’t been as weak as previously estimated
• Australian monthly CPI (October) 2.1% y/y (vs. 2.3% expected)
• Australian data – Q3 Construction Work Done +1.6% q/q vs. 0.3% expected
• Australian construction work data due at the bottom of the hour – what to expect
• Australian CPI due at the bottom of the hour – what to expect and why its not official
• Intervention effort – South Korea pension fund selling dollars, buying won in recent weeks
• Trump to appoint Jamieson Greer as US trade representative
• Deutsche Bank base case is now for a higher Fed terminal rate than previously expected
• BoE Lombardelli – need more evidence of cooling price pressures before another rate cut
• Goldman Sachs predicts nearly 1% inflation increase due to new Trump tariffs
• Private survey of oil inventories shows larger headline crude draw than was expected
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 26 Nov. The USD moves marginally higher. Housing mixed.
• Deutsche Bank highlights three risks to US equity market rally
• ICYMI – Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin to US$200K
• Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 27 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Bank of England Lombardelli says too early to quantify effects of proposed tariffs
• US equity close: Big bids arrive late

The
two items of most interest during the session here were the
Australian monthly inflation data, for October, and the Reserve Bank
of New Zealand cash rate cut.

Australian headline consumer price inflation (CPI) stayed at a
three-year low in October, unchanged for September at 2.1% y/y.
Government rebates continued to restrain energy prices (electricity).
Core inflation, however, was a completely different story. The
trimmed mean CPI rose to 3.5% y/y, from September’s 3.2%. This is
higher than the top of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2 – 3% target
band for inflation. The sticky high core inflation reading argues
against any near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts.
As always, though, we really have to wait for the ‘official’ CPI
data, which is released once a quarter. December Quarter 2024
(September – December) CPI is due on Wednesday 29 January 2025.

AUD/USD
didn’t do much on the data.

The
Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its cash rate target by 50bp, from
4.75% to 4.25%, in a widely expected decision. There was a perception
that the Bank were projecting a slower pace of rate cuts ahead and
NZD/USD surged higher. This perception was disputed by RBNZ Governor
Orr who went out of his way at his press conference to say that the
Bank’s projections are consistent with a 50bp cut in February,
depending on how the economy develops, of course. The Bank’s next
meeting is on February 19 2025.

NZD/USD
topped out around 0.5880 and then dribbled back down towards 0.5845.
As I update its back nearer to highs around 0.5870.

Data
from China showed
industrial profits fell again in October. The
headwinds for Chinese industrial earnings are familiar, soft demand
and deflation pressure.
Commentary
relating to the report trotted out the familiar hopes of more
policy easing next
year.

Yen continued to strengthen, with USD/JPY dropping under 152.30 at its lows. There was no fresh news nor data of note from Japan.

NZD/USD 5 minute candles:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.