Canada Q3 GDP +1.0% vs +1.0% expected

• The Q2 reading was +2.1% annualized
• Q/Q reading +0.3% vs +0.5% prior
• Q/Q implicit price index +0.6% vs +1.1% prior
• Gov’t spending rose 1.1% in the quarter
• Household spending rose 0.9% in the quarter
• Business spending on machinery and equipment decreased 7.8% in the quarter
• Housing investment +0.8% in the quarter, the first expansion since the third quarter of 2023
• Corporate income fell 1.1%

Monthly data:

• September monthly GDP +0.1% vs +0.3% expected (advance est was +0.3%)
• August monthly GDP was previously reported at 0.0%
• Services +0.5%
• Goods -0.4%
• Manufacturing -0.3% vs -1.2% prior (fourth consecutive decline)
• October advance reading +0.1%

These are unimpressive numbers, with Sept and Oct both now running at 0.1% and August was flat.

Meanwhile, on a per capita basis, Canadian GDP fell 0.4% in the third quarter, which was the sixth consecutive quarterly decline. The only thing keeping the Canadian economy alive has been mass population growth and that’s set to go into reverse.

USD/CAD rose on the release, up to 1.4030 vs 1.4010. BOC pricing was 70/30 before the release but is now 60/40, both favoring 25 bps over 50 bps.

GDP contributions:

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.