Euro falls as French political quagmire weighs

The single currency is also falling to fresh lows against its other peers, with EUR/CHF now down 0.3% to dip below 0.9300 again. This comes as there is a growing risk of a French government collapse, with Michel Barnier failing to find a compromise on the budget with Marine Le Pen’s far-right party.

This is putting a drag on the euro to start the session, with EUR/USD now starting to creep back below its 200-hour moving average (blue line). That will put sellers back in near-term control, switching to a more bearish bias.

France’s far-right have come out to say that they will back a no confidence motion against the government, barring a “last minute miracle”. Le Pen has given Barnier until later this afternoon to work something out.

An interesting tidbit in all this is that French 10-year yields have now moved below Greece’s 10-year yields for the first time on record. Meanwhile, the risk premium on French 10-year debt over Germany’s has risen by 6 bps to 86.5 bps as well on the day.

If the no confidence vote succeeds, it is likely to pressure the euro further with the dollar and franc especially looking to benefit further to start the week/month.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.