Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 15 bps (61% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 78 bps

• ECB: 31 bps (77% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 162 bps

• BoE: 4 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 77 bps

• BoC: 36 bps (53% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 104 bps

• RBA: 2 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 56 bps

• RBNZ: 33 bps (66% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 86 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 15 bps (58% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 51 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.